Friday, January 23, 2009

IRAN

We explained July/20/08 in this blog how the Nov/07 release of the NIE motivated Israel to institutionalize something that earlier had been only an outlier - a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Then Aug we put the odds for this event at 60%. So much for our timing; we now know that in May or June Israel asked Bush for permission for a strike (how dare they contradict our sketch!), something he refused, preferring to rouse a sympathetic Iranian public instead.

What’s next? Our long-held solution is still by far the best - a gasoline blockade. But it’s messy; most in Congress instinctively support the idea yet they lack the xxxxs to enact it. Near term then let’s look for dialogue with the new administration. Naturally nothing will be accomplished. Iran will continue with its work. Israel may again ask permission for a strike. We have no idea but if so, Obama will decline. However, we have known from Dec/08 that the IDF has drawn up options for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that do not include coordination with the United States (meaning codes from the US Air Force).

By the end of Q1 Iranian nuclear facilities will be dust.

Robert Craven