Sunday, November 15, 2009

A Tad MIffed

We got an email today from a reader, reminding us of the LA Times column headlined, "Obama must rethink rethinking Afghanistan." Author Doyle McManus said the deliberations were "starting to look like dangerous indecision": "In George W. Bush, we had a president who shot first and asked questions later. In Barack Obama, we have a president who asks the right questions but hesitates to pull the trigger."

Our dear friend was simply letting us know that, hey, look at that; maybe you’re right. He got it backwards. McManus needs the wake up call - "Hey, maybe you’re right, Craven had this stuff early on."

OK, so we are a tad miffed. We don’t need the LA Times or anyone else to verify insight offered up on this site (just like a few years back we didn't need street economists verifying our predictions re the real sector.) Heck, we’re usually there first and we’d like folks to acknowledge that. We may not offer the big name; what we do offer is accuracy. Whew! OK, that’s done.

What amazes this afternoon (we can just feel it) is the growing disillusionment from the left with "their guy."

Obama’s key role is commander-in-chief. We warned during the campaign that he was not cut out for the task - "profoundly out of his league."

Afg is his first real challenge.

He is acting perfectly in character.

Why the surprise?

Robert Craven

Mistaken

We’ve accused Obama of dithering. His fans claim we confuse dithering with prudence. They are mistaken. Obama does not demonstrate prudence but a lack of judgement.

Obama’s delay has protracted and complicated the campaign; it has reduced McChrystal’s ability to prepare for and conduct an effective operation next year.

Obama listed his goals regarding this conflict in a Mar/09 speech. McChrystal took command in June. Obama expected McChrystal to adhere to those goals and make progress by the summer of 2010. That is exactly what McChrystal set out to do. It is Obama who has not done his part. He won’t allow McChrystal to meet his, Obama’s, own deadline!

Where would we be today if BO had acted on McChrystal’s recommendations? From Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI, the following: "We would already have begun...
* Expanding the Afghan National Security Forces as rapidly as possible toward the goal of 400,000 total, a figure agreed-upon by the Afghan Ministers of Defense and Interior and by the U.S. military's own reviews;
* Preparing infrastructure within Afghanistan and the region to accommodate a large and rapid surge of U.S. forces;
* Sending more forces immediately to support ongoing operations in Helmand;
* Issuing orders to deploy all of the forces McChrystal requested as rapidly as possible.

Ordering the most rapid possible expansion of the ANSF should have required no discussion. Expanding Afghan forces has been a core principle of almost every plan the president has considered seriously. Indeed, it was one of the primary recommendations of the policy review conducted this spring. And it is also...something that could have been turned off with little harm if a few months of review changed the president's mind."

Get it?

Folks! All of this would have been underway, and key - all could have been begun and the WH would still have the luxury of a thoughtful review. It takes months to prepare and deploy a large combat unit. But they can’t get ready without orders. The prepare-to-deploy order, on the other hand, can be reversed - units can cancel movement plans, or return home more readily than they can start deploying without warning. There is no downside. The lag effect. Simple. To all but BO.

The failure of this adm then is that it has refused to buy time for its commander. Anyone of us would have known better. Hmmmm.

Is there something more than just lack of judgement, something in the very makeup of the man that is not quite right? We wonder. Obama’s background is narrow, confined to the grievance industry. There’s nothing robust about the guy. Where are the great enthusiasms for his country? Actually, he doesn’t seem very American to us. We feel he doesn’t understand Americans, nor, as it has become abundantly clear, American history. Ah, but we wander... this all remains the stuff of another blog.

Robert Craven

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

American Policy and Afghanistan - an Anchor

We opined in the Oct/6 blog that we hoped Obama would learn a thing or two about the role of commander-in-chief, that he would at least pick up a history book as an assist. There is no evidence, past weeks, that he has done so.

My son-in-law leaves Friday for Afghanistan. How long can his morale and that of his associates remain vibrant with an inexperienced individual in charge, whose track record shows he cannot make tough decisions, who by all indications has learned nothing since he has taken office?

Let’s back up just a tad. We’ve accused this guy of dithering, past blogs. His supporters have argued that he’s just being prudent. That’s a stretch. Recall that BO ran on the theme of Afg as the "necessary war" and Iraq as the "optional" war. He assumed (and this is key) that the then quiet front in Afg would stay that way. He assumed that we would withdraw from a hopeless Iraqi conflict. He got both wrong, as usual. The surge worked, but Afg heated up. Poor BO, now trapped by his own campaign rhetoric.

Now BO is in a state of perpetual hand wringing. The adm claims that the delay does not effect our prospects there. THIS IS FALSE. BO’s primary character weakness is now protracting and complicating the campaign in Afg; it has severely corroded McChrystal’s ability to conduct an effective operation.

For those interested in the key dynamics of the Afg/Pak situation, turn off the TV and read or re-read our blog "Moments of Truth". We have vital interests in Afg. Pakistan’s operations against its own internal foes have shown yet again how important it is for the US to succeed on the Afg side of the Durand Line.

We have followed the changing Afg conflict since the beginning, since the brilliant initial US victory there over the Taliban in ‘01, then the period of relative stability into ‘07, a period during which no more than 100 American soldiers were killed. Since then to the present, we have lost 553 soldiers, or less that 1% of Americans killed in Vietnam. As one observer put it, "What is astounding is the ability of the U.S. military to inflict damage on the enemy, protect the constitutional government, and keep our losses to a minimum."

Now, with Iraq relatively stabilized, muslim thugs have no choice but to commit their resources to Afg, or suffer a second defeat. We can beat the pants off these swine. There’s nothing there to stop us. Oh, but CNN has told you that no one has ever conquered Afg? Really?

Don’t tell that to Alexander the Great. This guy conquered most of Bactria and its environs (which included present-day Afghanistan). After his death, the area that is now Afghanistan became part of the Seleucid Empire. Later, the Brits nailed the locals in the wars of 1878 and 1919. Sure, the Soviets quit in 1989 but only because the US, Pakistan, China and others combined to provide the resistance with plenty of $ and weapons.

These are the folk who are going to stop the US military? Come on! They have never in their history defeated invaders, not for long, and not without outside assistance. This is a joke.

Oh, but in supporting BO’s difficulty, a just too, too complex situation, you lefties say that the country’s ungovernable, that it’s no use. Once again, if you’re not posted in history you’re vulnerable. After the 1919 founding Afg enjoyed a stable succession of const. monarchs until 1973. Fifty-four years is pretty good, right? When I was a young adult the country was considered secure, tolerant and hospitable to foreigners. And it might be again, and soon if only so many of our fellow Americans, misguided, naive or phonies, whatever, had not made that grave mistake in the voter’s booth, just a few months ago. Most will live to regret it. Those of us who are wiser, grounded, centered, must suffer for their foolishness. We will certainly live to regret it.

Robert Craven