Closing the Pattern

We predicted, end 2004, that over the intermediate term (2 - 3 years) Iran’s nuclear ambitions would become the single greatest issue on Rice’s plate. This week, Rice commented, "We are of course very concerned that the policies of Iran constitute perhaps the single greatest challenge for American security interests in the Middle East and possibly around the world," she said. The combination of Iranian terrorism, Iranian repression at home and the pursuit of nuclear weapons technology... is a very dangerous mix."

We did not predict then what has become a parallel axiom - Iran’s complicity in the destablization of the entire Mid East, especially Iraq - but have briefed out clients on these developments ahead of most other observers.

Next, in a sketch of May/06 we predicted the following: The International Atomic Energy Agency would continue to suffer from impotency, the same malady affecting its parent; Russia and China would remain squeamish (and amoral), for the near term blocking any meaningful sanctions birthed by the Security Council and finally, that the US, the UK and a coalition (as it turned out, of one - France) would decide to impose economic sanctions outside the UN framework. This week, unilateral economic sanctions were announced by the US, the first of their type taken by the United States specifically against the armed forces of another government. "The sanctions will empower the United States to financially isolate a large part of Iran's military and anyone inside or outside Iran who does business with it," a news service reported.

It is far more effective for us to continue to target Iran’s economy, to go on the offensive and undermine the Ahmadinejad government in that manner than to select the military option. This is directly out of Reagan’s book. The Iranian people become the proxy for (now pathetic) Western diplomacy. The big gun, our nuclear weapon in this endeavor? A blockade of Iranian gasoline imports.

Robert Craven