Iran Emboldened

Iran remains the #1 threat to world security, something we first highlighted 4 years ago.

Background: Recall the Nov/07 release of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iranian nuclear ambitions - "We judge with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Oops. The NIE claim that Iran halted nuclear activities in 2003 through at least mid-2007 was a hatchet job cooked up by ex State Dept employees. We said in Dec/07 that it was false. (It was however great news for appeasers everywhere.)

With the latest widely-publicized intelligence release of a secret nuclear enrichment facility (a facility western intelligence has known existed for a long time, yet not perhaps, its purpose) it is clear that we were spot on. Too bad.

Now what? The mullahs are not worried. Obama kept quiet, did nothing while thousands went into the streets of Tehran to protest brutality and a rigged election. The administration's excuse then was that Obama would wait for October to showcase his transnational diplomatic charisma. Naturally the mullahs concluded that since BO lacked the guts to support an infant democracy in Iran, no way he will confront them on nuclear, aside from contentious table talk. They are right.

Two years ago we noted that an embargo of gasoline imports was the most effective tool, the most effective sanction to thwart an Iranian nuclear objective. The central idea of course - let the Iranian masses act as our agent, as our proxy. We have seen recently that they lack nothing by the way of courage. When that country’s out of gas, due to the belligerence of its oafish, troglodyte rulers, the masses will, despite the Revolutionary Guards, put these guys out of business. Pretty much everyone in Congress agrees with us. The problem is in implementation and for some reason (wonder, wonder) the notion can’t gain traction with other Western nations. And the US under the current administration will not go it alone.

That leaves the military. We predicted an Israeli strike by the end of Q1. We were wrong in our timing, but only in our timing. The NEI release gave instant motivation to Israel to institutionalize something that earlier had been only an outlier - a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. They knew then they would have to go it alone. Certainly, short of a gasoline blockade, they will. Or, we might one morning read of an industrial "accident" in Iran (US special forces about). Maybe that’s in the works. Wouldn’t that be lovely?

Robert Craven