Iran - An Update

5/15/06
Iran - An Update

Clients were alerted November of 04 that Iran’s nuclear ambitions would become the key issue on Rice’s plate. During the next six months to a year we can expect the following:
The International Atomic Energy Agency will continue to suffer from impotency, the same malady affecting its parent. Russia and China will remain squeamish, for the near term blocking any meaningful sanctions birthed by the Security Council. The US, the UK and a coalition will impose sanctions outside the UN framework. One of these will be the blockage of gasoline imports. It is amusing that Iran, sitting on top of a major percentage of the world’s oil reserves, cannot produce its own gasoline. Such sanctions will be targeted to deliver the most pain in the shortest time span to the Iranian masses. Next, the US will cite Article 51 of the UN charter - our right to self defense. Those not living under a rock will come to understand that we will not wait for a Security Council resolution to protect ourselves (and most of the members of the UN have limited to no interest in that result anyway).
Parallel to these preparations we will witness further progress in Iraq. So will the Iranian people. Suffering triggered by sanctions coupled with media coverage in Iran (some US sponsored) of a newly democratic Iraq will result in a swelling of internal pressure for reform. Dissidents, especially those buoyed by the former administration in Iran and now silenced under Ahmadinejad will begin to stir and it will be especially the fruits of a burgeoning free market in Iraq that will stir them the most. This development will mirror that which we predicted would occur in Palestine. Victorious at the polls, Hamas has been suddenly crowned with responsibility. With aid all but completely cut off Hamas will abandon their bent for violence, will gradually move toward internal reform, and, a two-state solution with Israel. That, or starve their constituents and be thrown out of office. Ahmadinejad will suffer a similar fate unless Iran abandons a militant and archaic policy for one of reform, which will likely include monitoring by the US of their nuclear activities. And our view is that Ahmadinejad’s belligerence is 3/4's phony anyway, simply a posturing, a set up for economic incentives disguised as righteous indignation.
Thus, the US will prepare for the worst but hope for the best.
We will visit key points on this road map in more detail in the weeks ahead.
Robert Craven