MIDDLE EAST - an update.

7/16/06
Mid East - an update.
We did not anticipate current Iranian strategy. In previous writings we had looked for a near-term solution over Iran’s nuclear capabilities (and parallel progress with Hamas) tied to Western leverage - gentle in approach, strength in reserve. Now we have seen Iran, through the linkage of Hamas agents and its ally Syria, and its fully bankrolled terror organization Hezbollah, replace relative calm with turmoil.

Iran’s subterfuge is transparent: First, an Islamist power play to assume the #2 power position in the Mid East, the US occupying that of #1; second, create an almost instant diversion over the crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Bully Israel and get away with it and Iran’s prestige in that region will expand. Entice a devastating military response with civilian casualties from Israel and gather moderate Arab countries to the radical Islamic cause.

Sensing a lack of resolve (the Gaza pullout, the expanded Israeli desire for peace) Iran through its agents will take as many captives as possible, let fly as many Katyusha rockets as are at hand. Iran knows the response from the international community will be hand wringing at best; they know too they can expect the near-instant criticism of Israel in the world press.

Earlier we had celebrated the creation of a democracy in Lebanon yet that democracy has allowed itself to be man-handled by a minority faction - Hezbollah. So far Lebanon has exerted no control over that elected group; it is a sovereign state but an irresponsible one which cannot even control its own territory. Next, we had looked for restraint from Hamas yet that organization, with Syrian support, has proven only its eagerness play Iran’s hand.

The right response in fact was summarized nicely by the editors of the Weekly Standard: renewed strength--in supporting the governments of Iraq and Afghanistan, in standing with Israel, and in pursuing regime change in Syria and Iran.

Bob Craven