IRAQ - An Update

Jan/08/07
IRAQ - An Update

We predicted Nov/17 that US policy re Iraq for 2007 would 1) look to increase US troop levels by 30M to secure Baghdad first, then expand outwards, 2) direct more $ and commitment to the training of Iraqi forces, and 3) look for a political solution in the sculpting of an entirely new coalition.
Most of the plan for 2007 has now been leaked. In the largest sense, the mission will be to balance the effort to enhance Iraqi military competence with a US-assisted aim to secure the population, beginning with Baghdad. Securing the population was never a priority for us. It has now become the primary mission.. At least 20,000 more US troops will land with the militants in their cross hairs, and key, with expanded rules of engagement.
The notion is that by securing the population a re-formed government can, finally, exercise its sovereign powers. Thus, the Administration has pressed Maliki and Co to ostracize al-Sadr (whose party claims 30 seats in parliament), building a coalition of so-called "moderate parties". The new coalition we predict will eliminate al-Sadr loyalists altogether and replace them with other Shiites, then Kurds or moderate Sunnis. Finally, and a key component of the new plan (something we failed to highlight in Nov) is a jobs program intended to employ would-be hoodlums, including proposals for increased economic aid.
The military component of the plan is roughly patterned on that attempt to secure (meaning take and hold) Baghdad last summer, an operation that failed due to the shortage of US man power and Maliki’s unwillingness to agree to raids against the militia loyal to al-Sadr. That militia escaped because their power base is a strong supporter of Maliki in the assembly. Now, Maliki, no longer one of the willfully blind, has seen the light.
As their part of this agreement, Iraqi forces are beginning a neighborhood by neighborhood assault on militants, meaning Sunni insurgents and Shia death squads; these forces will eventually have responsibility for holding inner Baghdad while US forces partnered with Iraqis, will be in charge of surrounding areas, ever expanding their control.
More later.
Bob