MIDDLE EAST - an update.

8/09/06
Middle East - an update
Earlier we had highlighted what we believed to be Iranian motives for the current conflict. One was regional prestige. Iran has found that. Next was camouflage for its atomic aspirations. Iran has also found that, playing this conflict masterfully to subvert any near-term accountability.
We expected more from Israel, perhaps unrealistically. The war has failed to subdue Hezbollah, spotlighting their tenacity and providing regional prestige to their sponsor, Iran. And as we noted in the last posting, the West must now deal with an Iran which suddenly appears all the more potent as a burgeoning force in the region.
Iran now appears to be not just a threat to the West, but to most of the region. Iran is a Shia country; most of its neighbors are Sunni Arabs. Iran has been for years an exporter of Shia fundamentalism but has now demonstrated an increased will to export violence besides. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan cannot be happy with this situation, nor Tehran’s lust for a nuclear weapon. These countries and others may be just what is needed - allies in the making.

Bob Craven