IRAN - Still #1

Plenty of domestic action lately folks and it’s been fun; however, best to keep our eye on ball #1 - Iran.

We began our blogging following the Iranian mullah-thugs, 4 years ago. It’s been frustrating. Not sure the WH has looked at any of this stuff. We’re not insulted, only disappointed.

A few years back, we took on the Fed. We got ourselves squarely in front of Congress. Greenspan and the rest had something to say too on that day in Oct, 1993. Greenspan’s problem was that he failed to notice Anna Schwartz and I, a row behind him. He learned to regret it. He and the rest changed their less-than-savory behavior soon after.

Well, that was then. We don’t seem to be able to get the big-wig’s attention anymore. Still, we’ll continue to make plenty of noise, hoping someone comes to understand before it’s too late.

Obama has shed so many chances, God-given really. We, the US, could have been the friend of liberty in Iran, just as we were in 1953 when we and the UK saved these guys from Soviet domination. But nothing. Such a brave bunch, these protestors. BO has not so much as given them used pc’s to bolster communication among the ranks.

So-called sanctions to date are gutless. A joke. Netanyahu zeroed in on the heart of the matter, "What’s needed are crippling sanctions against this Iranian tyranny." Nothing we have applied so far can even be described as hurtful. Hillary this week said sanctions must target Iran's Revolutionary Guard "without contributing to the suffering of the ordinary [Iranians], who deserve better than what they currently are receiving." That won't work.

Thus, we now face the reality of an Israeli strike. This means "uncontrolled chaos" in that region, Iran’s attempt to close the straits, $5+/gal gas at home.

Our solution, the very best we feel, and, one endorsed by most of Congress, simply not BO - an embargo of refined gasoline imports to Iran - controlled chaos. Most observers know that such a step would put the mullahs flatly on their backs. To regain traction, the masses would throw this bunch out on the street. We would assist in the formation of a truly democratic, law abiding government. Prosperity and the rule of law would soon follow.

Naturally China and Russia are not keen on such a move, both looking to make a buck or two instead. Our allies own more of a moral sense that these two, and would suppprt us. So what we need is a president who, through some miracle, suddenly comes to understand that his job is to look to the interests of the United States and the West.

But the Iranians know their man in Obama and they are acting accordingly.

Recall world events prior to 1943. These were years of serial appeasement of Hitler, the near-disarmament of Western democracies, and, flirtations with pacifism. This sent a global message: the West was unable to meet the challenge of totalitarianism. So dictators called their bluff. The result - WWII.

Now, events are unfolding just as expected. In 2009, the United States gave Iran at least four deadlines to stop its nuclear program. All were ignored. Vic Hansen asks the question, "Does an emboldened theocracy believe this now is the year to become nuclear and change the entire strategic makeup of the Middle East?"

Yes.

Robert Craven

Foreign Policy 2009 - A Review

With a flower child wanabe at the helm there is little to cheer in this sketch. Foreign policy making is one big 60's college sensitivity session to Obama. You know, all standing together in the dark in their socks, lava lamps about - Assad, Chavez, BO, Putin, Kim, Ahmadinejad, Castro - now Vladimir, it’s ok, we’ll catch you, come on now, fall back, it’s ok, we’ll catch you, we’re all brothers, there’s only love here. See! See! Hugo, you’re next. Come on, only one human race here guy, caring and loving one another, only peace and love, feel it, let go, trust us.

We warned our readers during the primaries that BO was profoundly ill equipped for the role of commander-in-chief. Most understand now that we were correct.

Obama made a modest move to address the Afg situation, committing the minimum number of troops. The rest is failure.

Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and Cuba consider Obama an in-house joke. Recall any of these accepting his outstretched hand?

His policy in response to events in Honduras was completely backwards; more, it was revolting. His lack of support for the brave dissidents in Iran, even more so.

Meanwhile, as we hear from Robert J. Lieber, professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University, "Obama's assertive Middle East initiative has left the Israeli-Palestinian peace process worse off than before, has failed to gain support from Arab states and has lost the support of the Israeli public." Swell.

What is wrong here? We’ll tell you. Obama thinks negotiating with foreign powers is nothing more than the equivalent of a contentious faculty meeting. He talks about good intentions, and interdependence, and even (gag) emotions. He figures if they figure he means well that’s all that counts. He has no idea whatsoever, even after one year in office, that world governments look only to their own interests, or, that he was elected to look too ours.

Those who are not posted in history suffer under a handicap in trying to sort current affairs. Those who are vested with the responsibility of leadership of the free world and not posted in history do not only suffer under a handicap, but they endanger all those whom they have been elected to serve.

Recall the battle for Ft Donelson, 1862. Rebel commander Simon Buckner, looking for time, trying to gain some leverage, sent a proposal to Grant at dawn on Feb/16th asking to discuss surrender terms. Back came the reply: "No terms except an unconditional and immediate surrender can be accepted. I propose to move immediately on your works." Thirteen thousand men surrendered.

BO needs a little more U.S. Grant in his makeup and a little less Neville Chamberlain.

Robert Craven

A Bit of Homework

Just above, our stated goal - to isolate and analyze events key to the security of this country. A single event could not be more glaring than the following: Our president has put each of us, and our families directly at risk. As a result of substituting desultory chatter for real foreign policy, combined with the need to be loved by all, Obama in one year’s time has undermined respect for the US and severely undercut US security. Let us explain.

Suddenly most of us had to dust off the Atlas to find Yemen, given the panty bomber hailed from that part of the world. There is more to this story and we will see, through this example, that it is Obama’s policy of non-response to known world threats which puts us in grave peril.

It so happens that al Qaeda is prominent in the Arabian Peninsula, known there as AQAP, and that both this organization and radical cleric Anwar al Awlaki are based in Yemen. Oh, oh. Recall the Ft Hood shooter, N. Hasan. It was Awlaki who offered guidance to this guy, as he did to the failed flt 253 bomber, who also by the way had extensive training from AQAP.

Now, let's back up a tad. Recall that BO signed an order in Jan/09 to close Guantanamo Bay, claiming this would allow America to occupy the "moral high ground." It so happens that 100 of the 248 detainees there were then Yemenis. With very few exceptions, these guys are seasoned jihadists and extremely dangerous. That’s why they’re there. Well, the same day the order was signed, the state dept published an interview with BO’s Ambassador the Yemen, one Stephen Seche. Here is what he said: It is the goal of the new administration to repatriate a "majority" of these guys, and not just to send them to Yemen to be detained, but so that they could "make a future for themselves here." Really. Seche finishes, "Certainly we would like to be able to bring them back to Yemen and have them integrate themselves back into their own society with their families." What?

Sure enough. According to the Weekly Std., just last week BO repatriated six (6) Yemenis from Gitmo; among these was one Ayman Batarfi, a graduate of al Qaeda’s famous Khalden training camp. As the Weekly Std puts it, "Batarfi has been waging jihad since the late 80's, when he fought the Soviets, an among other accomplishments, worked with a ‘Malaysian microbiologist’ who headed al Qaeda’s anthrax program, then spent time with bin Laden at Tora Bora.’"

Think we made this up? Batarfi volunteered it all in his administrative review board hearing.

Every single individual who voted for Obama must wonder - what in the world have I done to my country.

Robert Craven

An Ultimatum!

Today Iran issued Obama an ultimatum. Try that with "Old Hickory" or even FDR and you might have seen your last sunrise. However, Iran understands perfectly well just who Obama is; they are acting accordingly. Obama’s vacuity of response to the December panty-bomber simply reinforces their conviction (well, Obama did respond, we’ve got to be honest, ordering the TSA’s absurd new reg that for the last hour of the flight no passenger can use the john, nor have anything on his lap - not a blanket, not a stewardess, not even the Koran. My, my.) The mullahs understand that Obama’s characteristic "caution," sort of an affected insouciance is not caution at all, or even unconcern, but timidity at worst, indecision at best.

Ultimatum? It’s true, as we all know this morning. From a news service: "TEHRAN, Iran - Iran on Saturday gave the West a one-month ‘ultimatum’ to accept a uranium swap, warning that if there is no deal it will produce its own nuclear fuel for a Tehran reactor, state television reported. The international community has just one month left to decide ‘ whether or not it will accept Iran's conditions, otherwise Tehran will enrich uranium to a higher level,’ Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was quoted as saying.’ ‘This is an ultimatum,’ he said.’" Whoa now folks!

We’ve followed Iran for nearly four years. We know its politics and leaders as well as most. Are Ahmadinejad and Khamenei and the rest just plain nuts? Of course not. They’re looking out for their own necks; it’s all they know; they’re thugs who have the irritating habit of dragging God into every misstep they make. And as is the case with all failed regimes, they need an enemy or foil and if there is no one handy then they’ll create one. That’s our purpose, that’s us.

They have no reason to change course. The unrivaled bravery of dissenters which we have all witnessed is nothing more than a nuisance to these clowns. We again saw the outpouring following the Dec/20 death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, a genuine cleric who broke with the ruling mullahs in the late 80's, criticizing their violence and repression. He became the spiritual leader to the opposition. The mullahs response to the demonstration - shoot a few of ‘em. Why not? Because they know perfectly well that there will be no repercussions from a US-led West. They know their man.

Those who have followed this blog understand there is an answer - either an embargo or blockade of Iranian imports of refined gasoline. This leverage combined with internal dissent, and the ruling class would be out on its butt, pronto. Most of Congress understand this reality. Only Obama, the failed leader of the free world, stands in the way.

Robert Craven