Middle East - An Update

July/30/06
The Middle East - An Update
We had detailed in the posting of 7/16 Iran’s complicity as the foundation of the current conflict. Indeed, Hezbollah’s surprising (at least to the West) display of armaments is the result primarily of generosity from Iran and secondarily of the support from Syria by allowing these shipments to pass through its territory. Similarly, the improved ability of Hezbollah fighters again is due to the sponsorship of these two countries. From the Iranian leadership especially, their willingness to export violence through various proxies surpasses earlier estimates. And this in turn supports those who look to contain Ahmedinejad’s nuclear ambitions. Instead of conventionally armed rockets, might the next transfer be nuclear?
So on its face, most observers agree and history supports the notion that Hezbollah must be totally incapacitated; anything less to be a wasted effort. Next, Lebanon must somehow be resuscitated so that it can regain control of its territory. Finally and as always what is needed - genuine reform at home. But sub-surface, that which is key, that which has been telegraphed clearly to all but the willfully blind is that the threat posed by Iran has expanded, its endeavor to export violence against the West apparently more zealous, more relentless, more successful than earlier understood.

Bob Craven

MIDDLE EAST - an update.

7/16/06
Mid East - an update.
We did not anticipate current Iranian strategy. In previous writings we had looked for a near-term solution over Iran’s nuclear capabilities (and parallel progress with Hamas) tied to Western leverage - gentle in approach, strength in reserve. Now we have seen Iran, through the linkage of Hamas agents and its ally Syria, and its fully bankrolled terror organization Hezbollah, replace relative calm with turmoil.

Iran’s subterfuge is transparent: First, an Islamist power play to assume the #2 power position in the Mid East, the US occupying that of #1; second, create an almost instant diversion over the crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Bully Israel and get away with it and Iran’s prestige in that region will expand. Entice a devastating military response with civilian casualties from Israel and gather moderate Arab countries to the radical Islamic cause.

Sensing a lack of resolve (the Gaza pullout, the expanded Israeli desire for peace) Iran through its agents will take as many captives as possible, let fly as many Katyusha rockets as are at hand. Iran knows the response from the international community will be hand wringing at best; they know too they can expect the near-instant criticism of Israel in the world press.

Earlier we had celebrated the creation of a democracy in Lebanon yet that democracy has allowed itself to be man-handled by a minority faction - Hezbollah. So far Lebanon has exerted no control over that elected group; it is a sovereign state but an irresponsible one which cannot even control its own territory. Next, we had looked for restraint from Hamas yet that organization, with Syrian support, has proven only its eagerness play Iran’s hand.

The right response in fact was summarized nicely by the editors of the Weekly Standard: renewed strength--in supporting the governments of Iraq and Afghanistan, in standing with Israel, and in pursuing regime change in Syria and Iran.

Bob Craven