Friday, July 30, 2010

Finally

We noted Tuesday that pressure is finally being applied to the mullahs, after years of UN impotence.

We thanked Obama for his role in this play (and should have thanked the EU, Australia and Canada besides) just as we criticized BO for abandoning Iranian protestors earlier. Obama may have come to his senses.

In the last piece we noted that Lloyds of London has halted insurance for shipments of gasoline products to Iran (key focus of the latest sanctions), and that such shipments have shrunk to about 1/3 of normal. We also noted that in a complimentary effort to effect change with these troglodytes officials are beginning to be more public in a prediction of a strike, short of nuclear compliance. Hayden was one of these. He’s not currently an official, but close. And it’s obvious that the Adm itself has adopted a firmer stance.

Other observers have followed our lead. Krauthammer notes today that in Ahmadinejad’s 7/26 prediction that the US and Israel will soon attack two countries in the region, is evidence of the growing pressure; Krauthammer did not use the phrase but we all know it to be the old invent-an-enemy trick so routinely used by despots.

The lever of refined gasoline - sanction, embargo or blockade - has existed for years, there but for the courage of some to pick it up. The very public growing threat of attack (the UAE ambassador to the US just recently indicated such a preference) adds to the pressure.

The best result will be for the masses to rise up, correctly blaming the mullahs for their misery. That is, to not only end the nuclear program but end the mullahs in the bargain and usher in a consensual government. This is what all of us hope for. It is a very real possibility.

Robert Craven

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Teething

Someone, somewhere in the Adm has put teeth in sanctions targeted at Iran. Obama’s at the helm; he gets the credit. We are pleased to be able to compliment the guy.

At the moment Iran is in a mad global search for refined gasoline. Why? Because a series of new sanctions agreed since June specifically target Iran’s oil trade and industry. These make it harder for any exporter to do business with the mullah clowns.

Background: Iran is the world’s 5th largest crude exporter can only refine about 55% of it gasoline needs. Too much!

As our readers have known for years, this is the Achilles Heel to that operation. Cut off gasoline (which we recommended 4 years ago) and the masses will take care of the mullahs. It’s that simple. Well, maybe we’re on the way.

According to Reuters, Iran needs 11 - 13 cargoes / month during this season. A document seen by Reuters showed that only 3 had arrived in June. One of these was from Turkey (naturally). Nothing from India, it’s once largest supplier. Another is expected from Venezuela this month.

Most owners of vessels are scared to death to get caught; most simply quit. Plus Lloyd’s of London no longer insures such shipments (Lloyd’s has 20% of this market but sets the trend.).

Fortunately those few countries that don’t care about the sanctions and yet have oil, are very far away, like Venezuela. Thus, the product the mullahs get is much more expensive.

Complementary to that above, more officials are publically predicting a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Michael Hayden, a CIA chief under President George W. Bush, said last week that during his tenure a strike was "way down the list" of options. But he tells CNN's "State of the Union" that such action now "seems inexorable." So this too is good news, because the more the topic is aired, the less likely it is that it will happen. But at this moment these higher odds are being priced in at the pump. Better that, then $6.50/gal o/n. That would have happened if we had been correct in our prediction of an Israeli strike for last March.

There’s plenty of brave folk in Iran who want a Western lifestyle and consensual government. Obama abandoned these types last year. Now he’s mending his ways, maybe. It’s tough love; it’ll make things miserable on these brave souls for a bit, and then they’ll get the job done.

Robert Craven

Friday, July 23, 2010

Diplomacy and N Korea

What is it with the Dear Leader? Really. Now we hear that he’s gonna nuke our ships, this weekend or next. Are we taking the right approach with this guy? Could it be the Porsche complex? You know. Bet that’s it. And he's been reading all the spam about how to bolster his equipment, but as of right now he's out $37 bucks and nothing. No wonder he wants to nuke Americans. Or maybe a shipment of Viagra would do the trick. Anyway, something’s not right with the guy and we're pretty sure we know what it is. We bet all he needs is some positive feedback. Hillary’s over there but she doesn’t have the track record. Bet our own Sarah Palin could sooth the Dear Leader. It’s probably that easy.

Where’s Sarah? We’re tired of listening to this miserable little runt.

Robert Craven