Get A Room

One of the most talented observers with us today is Shelby Steel of Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Along with his colleague Thomas Sowell, these two black scholars have been there and done that; Obama is a midget compared to these guys. Both see completely through our commander-in-chief.

Steel reminds us in a recent piece that Obama, “is simply the first president we have seen who is grounded in this counterculture American identity. When he bows to foreign leaders, he is not displaying ‘otherness’ but the counterculture Americanism of honorable self-effacement in which America acknowledges its own capacity for evil as prelude to engagement.”

Steel continues, “Among today's liberal elite, bad faith in America is a sophistication, a kind of hipness.”

And there we have it. This is the heart of Obama's foreign policy. Indeed, we know that either BO does not care, or, is more sympathetic to those who voice grievances such as his own against the U.S., than he is to our allies.

Vic Hansen reminds us that BO failed to support the Iranian freedom protestors, ignored the abuses of the Cuban and Syrian totalitarian regimes, and kept silent about the destruction of democracy in Venezuela.

Well natch. It fits.

A shame.

Footnote: Of course the media ignore this stuff; they are obsessed with Obama, or were. As a result the average folk out there didn’t get it all - they’ve got jobs and family to attend to, have to rely on the evening news. Phil Bronstein, writing on sfgate.com a while back tells us, “Love or lust, Obama and the fawning press need to get a room.”

Or did. We don’t think the press would consider BO as a lover any longer. They’re pissed. He charmed them into sacrificing their reputations.

Robert Craven

Scared

Ahmadinejad to the US: “If you don't leave the region, you should know that soon the nations of the region will expel you with a kick in the butt.” Whoa now! But wait! That’s not all. “May the undertaker bury you, your table and your body, which has soiled the world,” he added for good measure.

Too much! The body is one thing. Table too? OK, fine, we’re out of there.

No, seriously, what gives with this guy? Is he stupid? No. We’ve already established that. Is he erratic? Sure. Is he in trouble? Definitely.

He’s in trouble with the mullah clowns at home. And he’s in trouble with the US and her real allies who have applied what we termed a few weeks ago to be a pincher operation. It’s working.

Sanctions on refined gasoline (which we called for 4 years ago) have teeth. US (and EU) policy to unveil the threat of a strike scares the leisure suit right off this guy.

It’s easy nowadays to bad mouth Obama. In this arena, maybe not so fast.

Robert Craven

Betrayal

In past issues we have praised Obama for his unilateral effort to isolate Iran. There’s teeth in them thar sanctions. Those who claim we are partisan will receive little comfort from these issues.

Still, there is one overriding concern which these rare instances of judgement do little to erase.

It is this: Obama has put the security interests of the US in jeopardy and further endangered those Americans serving in Afghanistan by promising a withdrawal date of 7/2011, in exchange for votes to further his domestic agenda.

This is contemptible behavior.

We broached this topic earlier; now Woodward’s book confirms it. Woodward details the thinking behind Obama's decision on the deadline. "I can't let this be a war without end, and I can't lose the whole Democratic Party," Obama told Lindsay Graham at one point.

Trudy Rubin of the Philadelphia Inquirer has reported frequently from Afg. From today’s issue she is critical of Obama’s judgement: “As I saw on my last visit to Afghanistan, in April, the deadline convinced most Afghans that the Americans were headed for the exits. Tribal chiefs and village elders now believe the Taliban will make a comeback, and they are sitting tight.”

Key to our effort in Afg (as in Iraq) is the shift in Afghan psychology at the grassroots, the belief that it is safe for locals to turn against the insurgents. Duh! Any draw down date emasculates that goal. And it puts our people there at much greater risk.

Just a lack of judgement this time? More. An open act of betrayal based on party politics.

Every American should be ashamed of this guy.

Robert Craven

US Security

During the primary it was clear to many of us that Obama would move for a radical change to the left, if elected. His phony campaign rhetoric directly contradicted his record (radical). But our gravest concern during the primary was that Obama was profoundly out of his league in the international arena and that if he were to be elected, this translated to a heightened security risk for the US.

To his credit, in adopting wholesale the Bush-Cheney domestic security apparatus Obama did the right thing.

It is with foreign security concerns that Obama has acted more or less in character. However, contrary to his harshest critics we think he may have learned a thing or two. It’s probably nuts to say this about the guy, way, way out on a limb, but heck, let’s take the fling.

We highlighted yesterday’s UN reaction to muslim-mongrel Ahmandinejad’s rant (love the leisure suit.) The better part of the body sat there and clapped. Our point was that this event will provide support for the many who have for so long looked to de-fund and then abolish the UN. I think most of us now can see why. Good.

Yet to many observers, even some Democrats, yesterday’s event blew a great big hole in Obama’s foreign strategy. Naturally most of us understand (the nursery crowd late learners) that to “reach out” to thugs is simply suicidal. And we all did see BO’s answer from Ahmandinejad’s pals. So critics figure Obama is now completely impotent in matters of security, as if yesterday’s reaction were the final spike in the casket.

But to those critics - not so fast. In recent blogs we praised the administration for tougher sanctions on Iran, sanctions that have teeth, something we know from reports of gasoline tanker off loadings. And these sanctions were set independently of the UN. So a good move by the US (and the EU, Australia and Canada). And threats of a military strike have been more frequent. While these two items may not have been BO’s idea, and we doubt they were, he is at the helm so he gets the (in this case) benefit of the doubt.

It is true that BO is addicted to world organizations. And it is true that his foreign policy distills down to this - downplay U.S. strength and exceptionalism, while promising not to act independently against despots without the approval of world governing bodies. Maybe. Or maybe BO’s not a complete fool after all. Maybe Ahmandinejad’s about to find that out the hard way.

Now that they’ve joined us, it’s too easy to join them - the crowd. It’s easy because there’s no courage in crowds, and this one’s hell bent to beat Obama to a pulp. He deserves it in matters domestic. He may not deserve in matters of the mid east.

Robert Craven

Ahmadinejad's Sep/23/2010 Gift to the US

What exactly is Ahmadinejad (where do they get these names?) up to?

Background: He’s no buffoon. He’s smart. The WSJ’s Bret Stephens remarked after a press breakfast meeting with this guy that, “ Perhaps I haven't achieved the appropriate degree of jadedness, but my own impression of Ahmadinejad was that he was easily the smartest guy in the room. He mocked us in a way we scarcely had the wit to recognize. We belittle him at our peril.”

Last year we were pretty sure he was levering the West for handouts, in the fashion of Libya. It’s worked all over the globe. We were pretty sure too he was up to the old autocrat’s trick of create-an-enemy when things are tough at home. And for him, things are tough; he’s in a rolling run-in with the mullahs; they don’t like each other. And his economy is in the tank. So it all fits. But there must be something else.

We noted earlier that the unilateral sanctions (US, EU, Canada, Australia) combined with the now public threat of a strike might do the trick - enabling the masses (predictably, BO abandoned them last time). Certainly the sanctions have been effective, squeezing the Iranian economy.

But of course Ahmadinejad can’t cave in public. Thus, today’s rant was designed to acquire allies, in both the mid east and Asia, for his last run.

What shocked so many innocent types however was the applause as Ahmadinejad put America behind 9/11, or at least raised the real possibility. If folks were shocked it is only because they have never understood the UN, a place were petty henchmen and mass murderers gather as equals (one nation / one vote) with great democracies. It is what it has always been - a fraud. The UN notion of “sovereign equality” is a big joke. There is nothing “equal” about it.

Today’s rant then was a gift to those Americans who for years have known the UN in its present form is worse than useless, and who for years have called for an end to US funding; get the whole crowd out of NY; they can gather elsewhere.

Now, that is closer, much closer to becoming reality.

Robert Craven

Pincher Operation

We are elated. Events are congealing nicely. “It will be primarily an air attack with covert work to start a 'velvet' revolution so [the] Iranian people can take back their country," according to retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, a former fighter pilot. Gen. McInerney said B-2s would fly over Iran while cruise missiles would be fired off shore. The operation would last several days, he said. Today’s Wash Times quoted McInerney that B-2's would fly over Iran while cruise missiles would be fired off shore.

The now open threat of a strike combined with pressure from within may very well do the trick. There won’t have to be much “covert” work as the masses will do that bit for us. A simple gasoline quota two years ago drove them plain nuts (a few stations were burned to the ground). Think what an embargo will accomplish. And the masses know the problem is not the invented enemy, the West, but indeed the buffoons running Iran.

Of course, Ahmadinejad’s bosses may cave. Fine. Either way, we’re finally making progress.

Robert Craven

Finally

We noted Tuesday that pressure is finally being applied to the mullahs, after years of UN impotence.

We thanked Obama for his role in this play (and should have thanked the EU, Australia and Canada besides) just as we criticized BO for abandoning Iranian protestors earlier. Obama may have come to his senses.

In the last piece we noted that Lloyds of London has halted insurance for shipments of gasoline products to Iran (key focus of the latest sanctions), and that such shipments have shrunk to about 1/3 of normal. We also noted that in a complimentary effort to effect change with these troglodytes officials are beginning to be more public in a prediction of a strike, short of nuclear compliance. Hayden was one of these. He’s not currently an official, but close. And it’s obvious that the Adm itself has adopted a firmer stance.

Other observers have followed our lead. Krauthammer notes today that in Ahmadinejad’s 7/26 prediction that the US and Israel will soon attack two countries in the region, is evidence of the growing pressure; Krauthammer did not use the phrase but we all know it to be the old invent-an-enemy trick so routinely used by despots.

The lever of refined gasoline - sanction, embargo or blockade - has existed for years, there but for the courage of some to pick it up. The very public growing threat of attack (the UAE ambassador to the US just recently indicated such a preference) adds to the pressure.

The best result will be for the masses to rise up, correctly blaming the mullahs for their misery. That is, to not only end the nuclear program but end the mullahs in the bargain and usher in a consensual government. This is what all of us hope for. It is a very real possibility.

Robert Craven

Teething

Someone, somewhere in the Adm has put teeth in sanctions targeted at Iran. Obama’s at the helm; he gets the credit. We are pleased to be able to compliment the guy.

At the moment Iran is in a mad global search for refined gasoline. Why? Because a series of new sanctions agreed since June specifically target Iran’s oil trade and industry. These make it harder for any exporter to do business with the mullah clowns.

Background: Iran is the world’s 5th largest crude exporter can only refine about 55% of it gasoline needs. Too much!

As our readers have known for years, this is the Achilles Heel to that operation. Cut off gasoline (which we recommended 4 years ago) and the masses will take care of the mullahs. It’s that simple. Well, maybe we’re on the way.

According to Reuters, Iran needs 11 - 13 cargoes / month during this season. A document seen by Reuters showed that only 3 had arrived in June. One of these was from Turkey (naturally). Nothing from India, it’s once largest supplier. Another is expected from Venezuela this month.

Most owners of vessels are scared to death to get caught; most simply quit. Plus Lloyd’s of London no longer insures such shipments (Lloyd’s has 20% of this market but sets the trend.).

Fortunately those few countries that don’t care about the sanctions and yet have oil, are very far away, like Venezuela. Thus, the product the mullahs get is much more expensive.

Complementary to that above, more officials are publically predicting a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Michael Hayden, a CIA chief under President George W. Bush, said last week that during his tenure a strike was "way down the list" of options. But he tells CNN's "State of the Union" that such action now "seems inexorable." So this too is good news, because the more the topic is aired, the less likely it is that it will happen. But at this moment these higher odds are being priced in at the pump. Better that, then $6.50/gal o/n. That would have happened if we had been correct in our prediction of an Israeli strike for last March.

There’s plenty of brave folk in Iran who want a Western lifestyle and consensual government. Obama abandoned these types last year. Now he’s mending his ways, maybe. It’s tough love; it’ll make things miserable on these brave souls for a bit, and then they’ll get the job done.

Robert Craven