Closing the Pattern

We predicted, end 2004, that over the intermediate term (2 - 3 years) Iran’s nuclear ambitions would become the single greatest issue on Rice’s plate. This week, Rice commented, "We are of course very concerned that the policies of Iran constitute perhaps the single greatest challenge for American security interests in the Middle East and possibly around the world," she said. The combination of Iranian terrorism, Iranian repression at home and the pursuit of nuclear weapons technology... is a very dangerous mix."

We did not predict then what has become a parallel axiom - Iran’s complicity in the destablization of the entire Mid East, especially Iraq - but have briefed out clients on these developments ahead of most other observers.

Next, in a sketch of May/06 we predicted the following: The International Atomic Energy Agency would continue to suffer from impotency, the same malady affecting its parent; Russia and China would remain squeamish (and amoral), for the near term blocking any meaningful sanctions birthed by the Security Council and finally, that the US, the UK and a coalition (as it turned out, of one - France) would decide to impose economic sanctions outside the UN framework. This week, unilateral economic sanctions were announced by the US, the first of their type taken by the United States specifically against the armed forces of another government. "The sanctions will empower the United States to financially isolate a large part of Iran's military and anyone inside or outside Iran who does business with it," a news service reported.

It is far more effective for us to continue to target Iran’s economy, to go on the offensive and undermine the Ahmadinejad government in that manner than to select the military option. This is directly out of Reagan’s book. The Iranian people become the proxy for (now pathetic) Western diplomacy. The big gun, our nuclear weapon in this endeavor? A blockade of Iranian gasoline imports.

Robert Craven

IRAN

IRAN - Oct/07

Earlier we highlighted Iran’s complicity in the destablization of Iraq, this as part of their master plan to establish dominance in the entire region. We predicted that this presented the next major US hurdle. Last week general Petraeus told a group of reporters that, "Iran is responsible for providing the weapons, the training, the funding and in some cases the direction for operations that have indeed killed US soldiers." What can we expect next?

Progress in recent months in Iraq has served our goal to enhance American security as al Qaeda has gone from near-ascendancy in 2006 to near-collapse in 2007. From the Weekly Standard, "In front of all the world, Iraq’s Sunnis, to use the biblical phrase, are vomiting out al Qaeda. This is a defeat and humiliation in the extreme - an Arab Muslim population rejecting al Qaeda so violently that it allies itself in battle with the infidel, the foreigner, the occupier." This process has been highlighted in past postings. The turning of Sunni Iraq against al Qaeda is a signal event in the war on terror.

Now the US must and will focus on an Iran which has not only increased training and shipments, but has dramatically increased its efforts to destabilize the elected, Shia-dominated government of Iraq (as Iranian-sponsored Shia terrorists have been set back by combined US, Iraqi efforts). Iran has too long been allowed to enjoy a free ride in mounting a proxy war against the US.

At this juncture the US with some allies will adopt the idea we have long advocated, to begin to work outside of the UN framework to impose tough sanctions on Iran. James Phillips of the Heritage Foundation summarizes, "The goal of these actions will be to force Iran to choose between the national interests of the increasingly isolated regime. Shining a spotlight on Iranian subversion in Iraq and making clear the attendant risks of continuing that policy could eventually pay dividends by driving a wedge between Tehran’s radical regime and the Iranian people, who have a strong interest in avoiding international sanctions that could hobble Iran’s economy and constrict Iran’s links to the outside world."

Robert Craven